How accurate is PV power forecasting?

Due to the uncertainty of weather conditions and the nonlinearity of high-dimensional data, as well as the need for a continuous and stable power supply to the power system, traditional regression analysis and time series forecasting methods are no longer able to meet the high accuracy requirements of today's PV power forecasting.

How to forecast solar PV output power?

Forecasting solar PV output power is complex as the power supply fluctuates. Several methods have been researched and developed to improve PV power forecasting . Of the many existing techniques, machine learning models are widely being used and stand as the most recently developed models .

Why is forecasting important for solar PV systems?

The introduction of solar photovoltaic (PV) power systems into the energy sector has increased due to the fall in solar PV module prices over recent years , , . As solar PV systems have uncertainties in the power output due to changing weather patterns, there is an increasing importance of forecasting.

What is a power forecasting system (PV) & how does it work?

It is designed based on world knowledge or general knowledge of PV and aims to eliminate physically unreasonable forecasts, such as positive power generation at midnight, during training and testing processes, via filtering training data.

Why is short-term forecasting of PV power important?

Short-term forecasting of PV power, therefore, contributes to timely coordination of the power system, reduces the impact of fluctuations in PV power on the grid, and provides the basis for a continuous and stable power supply and demand.

Why is pvpg forecasting hourly?

Because the weather data are of hourly resolution, the PVPG forecasting is also hourly. Different resolutions of forecasting can be made with the PC-LSTM model when corresponding weather data are available. Additionally, the forecasting horizon of PVPG depends entirely on the horizon of weather forecasts that can be obtained in advance.